August 2022

In times like these, investors and business professionals have long tried to predict the future. In the earliest civilizations, predictions from oracles, shamans, and prophets, depended on the capacity of these individuals to access other planes of being and receiving divine inspiration. In recent years, forecasters have amassed massive amounts of data (e.g., USA Facts), complex simulations (e.g., RAND Corporation, 538) and relied upon crowdsourcing predictions (e.g., DELPHI technique).

At the moment, the world is chock full of forecasts. prophecies, cliodynamics all intended to predict the future and future economic cycles and create an advantage. The clearest lesson from the history is that we use it as a guide - although it may not offer precision, history does offer patterns and direction. Historical patterns reveal cycles, waves, or sequences can be identified in the past and can therefore be expected to recur in the future.

Despite the confusion surrounding current economic indicators that oftentimes include conflicting information, we encourage you to look to the past as you attempt to predict the future. Specifically, consider 2007 - 2012 Berkshire Hathaway Investor Letters, and blog posts from Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures, Michael Mauboussin of Morgan Stanley, Marc Andreesen of Andreessen Horowitz.

And, if Matt or I can help you make sense of all that is going on and any impacts to your search, please contact us. In the meantime, please find a selection of resources below to support your efforts. 

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