April 2020 #1
Access to some materials included in this newsletter may be limited to Red Forest Capital funds.
You’re likely being bombarded by advice for what to do (including us) and trying to figure out how to make sense of it all and how to apply it to your search. We’ve resisted sending one of the generic emails that we’ve all received – explaining how the local coffee shop is responding. In our opinion, COVID-19 is a game-changer and is the ultimate “boogeyman”; it’s universally threatening and invisible. As uncertainty persists, private markets will feel the pressure and the desire for personal security and health will be amplified as a primary need for all. Our world is very different than it was three weeks ago, as such this edition of the newsletter will be as well.
Following are a few thoughts on what to expect, resources added two the RFC Knowledge-base and other resources for you to use. Shortly, Matt and I will distribute a summary of the CARES Act and guidance to help you answer questions and guide business owners. In the meantime and if you need help, contact us.
A "NEW WORLD ORDER"? As investors and operators, we’ve seen past crises, cycles. The 1987 crash didn’t create a new world order. The recession in the early 1990s, triggered by reduced defense spending at the end of the cold war, the oil price shocks, and a savings and loan crisis, ended in 1994. In 2000, the internet bubble burst. By 2002 the NASDAQ fell by nearly 80%. In 2001, the twin towers were hit which changed everything overnight. Nobody saw it coming. The financial markets quickly gave up more than a trillion dollars. Travel, insurance, and similar industries took huge hits. Around 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis contributed to a recession that lasted through 2009. Financial institutions crumbled. More than 5% of the workforce lost jobs. Fear and panic set in. Just like March 2020, the Fed made emergency interest rate cuts to just over 1%, as they did during the financial crisis of 2008, during 9/11a, and the dot com crash. While avoiding confirmation bias, in every case, the economy recovered.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEAR TERM. The recovery will not be smooth, and we should expect to see the following impacts;
• Lower Transaction Volume as consumer spending and business investment are set to decline, it’s likely that PE transaction volume will slow
• Increasingly Conservative Financing as lending tightens, more conservative capital structures with a larger proportion of equity are likely.
• Anxious Dry Power (undeployed capital) and a whopping $2.4 trillion in PE dry powder to be deployed, albeit more slowly and perhaps more prudently than in the past
• Lower Multiples as earnings fall and the cost of capital rises, asset prices will decline across the board, which would hurt exit multiples. On the flip-side, purchase price multiples will decline
Covid Impact by Industry from VerticalIQ
Once Scrutinized, an Insurance Product Becomes a Crisis Lifeline by NY Times
SMALL BUSINESS AND COVID-19.
COVID-19- Actions To Take Now from Bain
The CARES Act and Taxes from Plante Moran
Credit Reporting, Estate Planning in Uncertain Times, Health Care, and Student Lending from Ballard Spahr'
Residential Mortgage Forbearance Relief and HUD Programs to Receive Significant Financial Assistance Under CARES Act by Ballard Spahr
PRIVATE EQUITY
Private Equity Steps Up Push to Unlock Coronavirus Stimulus by the Wall Street Journal (no subscription required)
Smart, Contrarian Private Equity Firms and Private Equity Firms with Good Timing by Private Equity Info
PitchBook Q1 2020 PE and VC fundraising, deal sourcing, and performance
CARES Act. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act ("CARES Act") SBA Loan Program Enhanced allows for increases to the SBA 7(a) Loan and SBA Express Loan programs. Max loan amount for 7(a) loans will be the lesser of $10M or 2.5x the avg monthly payroll costs for the one-year period before the loan is made. Max loan amount for an SBA Express Loan has been raised from $350k to $1M. This also includes the Payroll Protection Program, which is offering loans equal to 2.5 months of payroll, up to $10M. Loans convert to grants if SMBs use them to maintain employees and may also be used to rehire staff. All of these programs can be accessed thru local and national, SBA-approved lenders that can be found through SBA Lender Match and RFC’s SBA Lenders Ranked by Volume
• SBA Disaster Assistance Loan Program is providing up to $2M to cover any fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other expenses. Best Practices for Disaster Loan Applicants
• CARES Act Loans Come With Labor and Employment Strings Attached
• CARES Act Provides Enhanced Unemployment Compensation Benefits
WORKING FROM HOME (WFH)
• A Guide for Working (From Home) Parents from Harvard Business Review and Unconventional Work From Home Tips from Product Hunt
• How to Use Writing to Sharpen Your Thinking by Tim Ferriss
• How to Get People to Actually Participate in Virtual Meetings ways increase meeting engagement
FOR FUN
• 100 best designed products of modern times. Number one on the list may not surprise you, but others will
• Copper 3D develops a reusable 3D-printed face masks as part of their #HackThePandemic initiative
• Broadway Musicals, NYC Street Art Tour, Hula Classes, March Madness Sports Movie Bracket and Yo-Yo Ma’S Songs Of Comfort: "Going Home” by Dvořák